Craft beer and big brewers: where volume growth starts to stall
For years, beer growth followed a familiar script: more volume meant more shelf space, more taps and more occasions to drink. That story looks less convincing now. Not because the category has stopped everywhere, but because in different markets a similar message is starting to emerge: simply selling more litres is no longer enough.
In the United States, a large share of independent craft breweries has seen production slip in recent years. Among the bigger players, the decline is especially visible: many are now operating below their recent peaks. One notable exception is Athletic Brewing, the US brewery focused on non-alcoholic and very low-alcohol beer, which continues to grow at a strong pace. The point is not to draw a neat line between winners and losers. It is to notice that even brands that came through the most expansive years of American craft beer now have to defend positions that once seemed secure.
Non-alcoholic beer is no longer just a side category
Germany tells a different story, but one that points in a similar direction. Einbecker Brauhaus, a historic Lower Saxony brewery long associated with the Bock style, has outlined a diversification strategy that moves into non-alcoholic beers, functional drinks and other categories beyond traditional beer. More than a tactical adjustment, it reads like an acknowledgment that the domestic market leaves less room for linear growth and pushes producers to rethink their boundaries.
A similar logic appears, on a different scale, in Krombacher‘s decision to bring Krombacher 0.0% to draught in selected venues and at Arminia Bielefeld‘s stadium. Until recently, the product had only been available in bottles and cans. Entering the draught channel matters not because it is symbolic, but because it suggests a push to win more space for non-alcoholic beer in on-premise occasions that were long dominated by alcoholic options.
From an operational point of view, serving non-alcoholic beer on draught still requires more careful line management than conventional beer. That makes it a step involving equipment, control and maintenance rather than a simple format change. The fact that a large brewer is willing to take that on says something about how much strategic weight the segment now carries.
Less a single trend, more a series of adjustments
Bringing the US and German markets into the same frame does not mean they are going through the same crisis, or that every brewery is reacting in the same way. What the examples do show is a shared pressure point: alcoholic beer is no longer the only centre of gravity around which growth can be built. In both markets, some companies are responding to demand for low- and no-alcohol products by broadening their portfolios beyond the traditional category.
For American craft beer, this comes after years when expansion seemed almost automatic. More brands, more styles, wider distribution. That phase has given way to a more selective environment, where holding volume is harder and attention shifts toward formats, channels and categories that can reach different drinkers. In Germany, the pressure is more structural: heritage brands have to deal with a softer overall beer market and a public that is increasingly open to lower-alcohol alternatives.
What matters most is not the contraction itself, but the response it is forcing. Diversification does not mean walking away from beer; it means widening what a brewery can make and sell. That is a commercial shift, but also a cultural one: a brand long read as an alcoholic-beer producer has to find a new balance once it starts operating on adjacent ground. Not every company has the tools, or the time, to manage that transition equally well. And that is where the story becomes less about product and more about identity and positioning.
