Specialty coffee is still growing, but the market is becoming more selective
In the United States, specialty coffee continues to gain ground in everyday consumption. National Coffee Association, the US coffee trade group, reports that nearly half of adults drank specialty coffee the day before they were surveyed, a record high. Espresso-based drinks also reached new highs, out-of-home coffee consumption edged back toward pre-pandemic levels, and app-based ordering hit another record. From the consumer side, the category still looks lively and clearly in motion.
The market picture is more complicated. Retail data suggest that value growth is running ahead of volume growth, with average prices rising while unit sales are not expanding at the same pace. In practice, that means inflation and cost pressure are supporting revenue more than a surge in underlying demand. For producers and retailers, the result is tighter margins and consumers who are more sensitive to value for money.
A market pulling in two directions
The American coffee market is currently being pulled in opposite directions. On one side, more consumers are leaning into elevated experiences: espresso, specialty blends, whole beans and home brewing equipment that brings part of the cafe ritual indoors. On the other, a meaningful share is moving toward more affordable and flexible formats such as instant coffee, which continues to show signs of growth in both value and volume.
Between those two poles, ready-to-drink coffee is finding the going tougher. The format still benefits from convenience, but it now has to compete for attention and occasions with other functional beverages, especially among younger consumers. Convenience alone is no longer enough: flavor distinction, more accessible pack formats, or ingredients that justify a higher price are becoming harder to skip.
Cold coffee consumption also continues to rise in warmer months, while matcha is gaining space among wellness-minded consumers looking for variety. That does not make it a direct threat to coffee, but it does underline a broader point: loyalty among younger drinkers cannot be taken for granted.
The craft beer lesson
The path of micro-roasters has, in some respects, echoed what happened in American craft beer. After years of rapid expansion, the sector went through a correction: in 2024, closures outnumbered openings for the first time since 2005. In the UK, independent brewers’ trade bodies have linked pressure on the sector to rising costs and harder access to the market.
Specialty coffee is not there yet. The comparison works mainly as a cautionary one: the room to stand out is shrinking, and that matters a lot for smaller roasters. A micro-roaster working at small scale starts with thin margins, so increases in green coffee costs or operating expenses are felt quickly. Ecommerce lowered the barriers to entry, but it also multiplied the competition and made it harder to stand out online.
In this environment, consistency of identity, steady quality, community roots and lasting customer relationships appear to be the differences that help micro-roasters grow. None of that is new, but it becomes harder to execute in a crowded market.
Specialty coffee still has room to expand, particularly in less saturated regions and among consumers who have not fully embraced it yet. But the easy-growth phase, when opening a business and telling a good story could quickly create space, seems less available now. What remains is a more selective market, where a solid business model matters alongside the coffee itself.
