Wine in the face of the numbers: falling consumption, smaller formats, markets to watch
Wine is entering a phase in which numbers matter more than impressions. In 2025, global wine consumption fell 2.7%, while Italy recorded a 9.4% drop. That is a heavy figure, especially because it comes from mature markets rather than a one-off seasonal swing. More than an abrupt shift, it points to a demand curve that continues to soften in parts of the West, shaped by a different relationship with alcohol and a stronger preference for moderation.
Among the key markets for Italian wine exports, Germany and the United States both posted declines in the range of 4% to 5%. France moved in the same direction. Read together, these numbers do not describe an isolated downturn, but pressure concentrated where wine built much of its long-standing base. Still, the picture is not only about contraction: there are also signs of interest in regions that used to play a more peripheral role in the international wine story.
Brazil, in particular, recorded strong consumption growth in 2025, reinforcing its profile as a market to watch for European and Italian wine. The significance of that move is not just in the direction of travel, but in what it suggests: the map of wine consumption is no longer fixed, and some countries are gaining visibility just as others lose momentum.
Smaller formats, more flexible drinking
Alongside geographic change, the product itself is evolving. In the no- and low-alcohol segment, Cantine Riunite, an Emilian cooperative with an international export presence, introduced a 187-ml version of its alcohol-free labels in the United States, with an eye on convenience retail and more informal drinking occasions. The single-serve format does not solve the consumption slump, but it does reflect a different habit: for consumers who want to open less, drink less, or simply choose the moment more freely.
That kind of offer lands in a U.S. market where alcohol-free wine is finding more room. NielsenIQ indicated that the category surpassed $1 billion in off-premise sales in 2025. On its own, that figure does not define the segment’s future, but it does confirm that no-alcohol wine is no longer just a curiosity niche. For some producers, it opens a way back into usage occasions that traditional wine reaches less easily; for consumers, it can be a simple answer to very different needs.
The moderation theme has also moved onto a cultural plane. At major industry gatherings, low-alcohol wine is no longer treated as a side note, but as one possible lens for reading younger drinking behavior. That does not rewrite the market on its own, but it shows how wine is looking for new points of contact with audiences that are less predictable than before.
Territory and accessibility, without overcomplicating the story
At the same time, some Italian appellations are trying to speak to wider audiences by starting from territorial identity, but with a less self-referential tone. The Bardolino wine consortium has tied its anniversary to a discussion about identity, value and how to remain legible to consumers who are not already wine-savvy. It is a challenge that many Italian wine regions know well: how to stay recognizable and coherent without turning tradition into a closed language.
In that context, the way a region presents itself matters just as much as what is in the glass. Open tastings, music, visual arts and formats designed for non-specialist visitors all point toward a broader experience, one in which the appellation does not just celebrate itself but tries to build a relationship. That is not a definitive answer to falling consumption, nor does it pretend to be. But it does help clarify one crucial point: in a less certain market, wine needs easier points of entry without losing its identity.
Looking at these signals together, the picture is less that of a finished turning point and more that of a sector searching for different answers to different pressures. Consumption is easing in some mature markets, strengthening elsewhere, and alternative formats are gaining space in contexts where conventional wine has a harder time renewing its appeal. There is still no single model, but the direction of travel is clear enough: more flexibility, more segmentation and more attention to how wine fits into everyday life.
