Wine enters a phase of reset: fewer volumes, new priorities
This is not just a cyclical dip. The signals coming from the global market and from Italy point to a sector entering a phase of reset: volumes are weakening, demand is changing shape, and wine is being pushed to rethink its position more deeply than it has had to in recent years.
On the global side, the picture remains cautious but telling. In 2025, wine recorded another decline in volume and, for the first time, fell below spirits in total volume. At the same time, a few segments proved more resilient: RTDs, no/low-alcohol products, and some sparkling wines such as Prosecco and Crémant managed to better capture newer drinking occasions. This is not a definitive market reversal, but it is a clear enough signal that format, context and versatility matter more than they used to.
A sector that holds up better at the top than at the base
In Italy, the picture is equally nuanced. Recent data from Valoritalia, one of the main certification bodies for Italian denominations, point to a decline in bottled volumes in 2025 and further weakness in the opening months of 2026. The most interesting part is not simply the negative headline, but how uneven it is underneath: IGT wines lost ground, while DOC and DOCG held up better; reds came under more pressure than other categories, while still whites, rosés and sparkling wines showed more encouraging signals.
That pattern sits on top of a structure that makes the differences more pronounced. A small number of denominations and consortia account for a very large share of certified volumes, while the production base remains widely fragmented. That is not a weakness in itself: it is part of what has made Italian wine so varied and recognisable. But in a slowing phase it also becomes a vulnerability. Larger players tend to absorb demand swings more easily, while smaller businesses are more exposed to market fluctuations.
From there, a conversation is taking shape that the sector can no longer postpone: how to manage supply with more flexibility, how to encourage consolidation among consortia, and how to adapt strategy to the scale of different companies. Technology can play a practical role here, for example through tools that read certification flows more quickly and help decision-making before the market has already absorbed the problem. At the same time, sustainability has moved from image issue to a more visible competitive factor: for many Italian consumers it is now among the criteria that really shape choice, just behind price and Italian origin.
Tomorrow’s wine will be less habitual, more deliberate
But the real question goes beyond this year’s data. What place will wine hold in tomorrow’s consumption habits? The sense across the industry is that it is losing its automatic role in the daily meal and in ordinary conviviality. For decades it was the natural drink at the table; today that position is contested by many alternatives, and for younger generations wine is increasingly a deliberate choice rather than an inherited routine.
In that sense, jazz works well as a cultural metaphor: a deep language, instantly recognisable, capable of moving those who know it, but less central to mass culture. It does not point to marginality, nor to total disappearance. It suggests instead a product that needs to redefine its meaning, its rhythm of consumption and its relationship with different audiences.
Another layer of change comes from geography. Climate change is shifting some of the most favourable areas for viticulture toward higher latitudes and altitudes. In countries such as England, Denmark, Sweden and Canada, interesting wines are emerging, especially in sparkling styles and high-acidity whites. Historic wine regions are not disappearing, but they do have to adapt grapes, farming practices and styles more quickly, while trying to preserve the identity that made them distinctive in the first place.
The direction of travel is therefore less linear than the boldest narratives suggest. Volume alone is no longer a sufficient sign of strength, and the answer cannot be purely defensive. Investing in perceived quality, in more precise storytelling and in credible sustainability becomes part of the same strategy. At the same time, the sector will have to accept that not every denomination, and not every production model, will have the same space in the market that is taking shape. In this phase, rationalisation is not retreat: it is a way of staying legible, competitive and relevant.
